This Issue's TLDR...

• How it started vs How it's going for Carbon 6
• The Amazon Affiliate ecosystem
• Walmart price fixing

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So, remember when SPS Commerce dropped the bombshell that they were acquiring Carbon6 back in early 2025?

Everyone in the Amazon world got a little excited. It was a BIG exit for an Amazon ecosystem player.

Fast-forward to the Q4 2025 earnings call (Feb 12, 2026), and the picture looks... complicated.

Based on everything I've read and heard, if I had to meme out the acquisition...

But let's go deeper...

How It Started (February 2025)

As a recap...SPS Commerce -- the EDI/supply-chain giant most of us probably didn't know of -- scooped up Carbon6 Technologies for about $210 million.

It was a mix of cash ($142.5 million) and ~378,100 shares of SPS stock (valued at ~$67.7 million at closing).

For those Carbon 6 investors and employees receiving shares, there was a lock-up clause -- i.e., No sale/transfer of 50% of their shares for 30 days post-closing, and the remaining 50% for 90 days (with no more than 20% sold on any trading day).

In terms of what SPS Commerce got for that $210 million...

• Carbon6's tools -- notably, ChargeGuard for 1P recoveries, and Seller Investigators for 3P inventory reimbursements.​
• A bunch of recurring customers from Carbon6 (more on that below)

Many people -- myself included -- wondered...

Were Carbon 6's tools *really* worth $210 million?

I mostly landed on "No".

There had to be another "angle" to this for SPS Commerce.

Amidst all the puffery and PR hype, SPS Commerce CEO Chad Collins actually tipped his hand at the angle:

They wanted to "extend the reach of our network with clear leadership in revenue recovery solutions."

Put differently:

Carbon 6 -- particularly, ChargeGuard -- was the missing puzzle piece for SPS Commerce. It complemented their prior acquisition of SupplyPike and, in SPS' opinion, positioned SPS well to take a stronger grip on the $750+ million addressable market for U.S. 1P revenue recovery.

So, SPS paid $210 million for ChargeGuard?

Sort of.

How It's Going (Q4 2025 Earnings Call)

Fast-forward one year. In the February 2026 earnings release and call, SPS revealed that:

• Carbon6 integration added ~8,500 recurring revenue customers right at close (mostly 3P, some 1P).
• Goodwill bumped up to around $542M -- no impairment charges mentioned anywhere in the filings or call. (For those that don't speak Corporate Finance...that's a green flag; no big write-down drama. But, I'm expecting that there will be a goodwill impairment charge in the future.)
• Revenue recovery is still framed as targeting that juicy $750 million addressable market for 1P sellers.

But, that wasn't all that SPS revealed. They also said that:

• 3P customer count dropped ~350 (way more than the ~150 net decline they guided for earlier).
• 1P customer count was Flat.

CEO Chad Collins doubled-down on the 1P focus:

"We really do think about the 1P customer count and the 3P customer count quite differently... we're flat from a 1P customer count, and then down 350 on the 3P side."

Translation: They're intentionally prioritizing higher-value 1P opportunities over 3P.

Moreover, Amazon policy changes and take-rate dynamics are making it harder to make this acquisition a winner.

And, SPS is guiding cautiously. Their FY2026 guidance only anticipates 6-7% revenue growth. Not exactly the rocket ship some hoped for post-acquisition...

***

I want to hear from you! Have you used ChargeGuard, Seller Investigators, PixelMe, or any other Carbon6 stuff pre- or post-acquisition? Does it feel like they've taken their foot off the gas for 3P? Just reply to this email.

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BEST from LinkedIn

If you want to deeply understand the Amazon Affiliate landscape, go read this post (and the comments!).

Thanks, Jesse.

BEST from X

So, you know how Amazon has been under the microscope for anti-competitive pricing practices?

Well, it turns out, Walmart has been doing it too.

Wall Street Apes @WallStreetApes Walmart and Pepsi caught price fixing (with proof) “Walmart found a creative, illegal way to make sure they have the lowest prices” “They're forcing companies to raise prices on any competitor who dares to sell items at a lower psice than Walmart” There are court documents 11:21 PM • Feb 11, 2026 2554 Retweets 7513 Likes Read 209 replies

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BEST from YouTube

A very cool undercover operation, into what many consider the epicenter of eCommerce: Shenzhen.

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